The AIs have it: Nobody knows anything

I asked three AIs about the issues and they reflect our own confusion

Kamala Harris is loved by the media reporting on how loved she is. The fact that she’s not Joe Biden, and that the Democrats have avoided certain disaster is helping her greatly, and in fact, Harris has dominated the headlines in a way that must frustrate Donald Trump. I wanted to understand what Americans are looking for in order to fully commit to Harris, so I asked the worst possible source: AIs.

Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

I asked ChatGPT 4o, Meta AI, and Grok the same questions about what issues Kamala has to emphasize in her campaign. For two of the AIs, I had to get them to parse out sources like the Harris campaign, the Center for American Progress, and the DNC. Interestingly, Meta AI freely admitted it used the Harris campaign for “30-40% of the points” it generated. ChatGPT pretended not to know what I was talking about regarding possible bias, but I did tell it to eliminate those sources.

The lists obtained from the biased sources were about as you’d expect for talking points. Once “cleansed,” things got a bit clearer. Meta AI added a convenient comparison summary for me (which ChatGPT didn’t do).

Compared to the original list, the following changes were made:

• Added "Border Security and Immigration" as a separate issue, reflecting its prominence in conservative-leaning sources

• Renamed "Women's Rights and Reproductive Freedom" to "Racial Justice and Equity", broadening the focus to include systemic racism and police reform

• Added "Budget and Entitlement Reform" to address concerns about national debt and entitlement program solvency

• Emphasized bipartisan solutions and balance in issues like healthcare and climate change

Both ChatGPT and Meta AI put the economy as the number one issue, followed by healthcare. ChatGPT put immigration as number three, and climate change as number five, while Meta AI had immigration as number five and climate change as number three. The lists were fairly well aligned in any case.

Grok was a different story. Elon Musk’s XAi likely used X (Twitter) posts as the source for its list.

Based on the information provided, some of the critical issues that Kamala Harris needs to address to maximize her popularity with voters are:

1. Immigration: Harris needs to clarify her stance and policies on immigration, as it is an issue that many Americans care about.

2. Crime: Harris should address her record on crime and present her plans to tackle this issue effectively.

3. COVID-19 vaccine for children: Harris should communicate her position on COVID-19 vaccines for children ages 5 to 11, as this is a topic that has divided opinions among Americans.

4. Police spending: Harris should discuss her views on police spending and whether she supports increasing or decreasing it.

5. Generic congressional ballot: Harris should focus on improving her party's performance in the generic congressional ballot, as Democrats currently lead by 2.5 percentage points.

COVID-19 vaccines for children is a surprise to me, because I didn’t see that one coming. It’s not a giant issue to me, but I think it might be a bigger issue with core MAGA or RFK, Jr. supporters. It’s interesting that Meta AI listed “gun safety and violence prevention” as number seven but didn’t address crime as a category. ChatGPT had “public safety and crime” as number six, and didn’t mention gun topics at all.

I think the lesson here, besides the fact that our AI systems are hopelessly tied to their training sets and subject to all kinds of hallucinations, is that there are a good number of core issues in the election, but what I didn’t see was January 6th, election security, or any of the stuff Trump blathers on about constantly as issues for Harris.

I asked the AIs how Trump’s talking about election security, immigration, and Harris’ racial identity might hurt him with voters. I like Grok’s answer.

Based on the information provided, it is difficult to make a definitive prediction about whether Trump's focus on election security, immigration, and Harris's racial identity will hurt him with voters. However, there are some insights that can be gleaned from the data:

1. Trump's comments about Harris's racial identity have drawn criticism and backlash from some Republicans, including Sen. Thom Tillis, who acknowledged that they could be a distraction from the issues he wants to focus on.

2. Some experts believe that Trump's attacks on Harris are an attempt to distract from his own record and policies, and that they may not resonate with voters in the long run.

3. The tweet by @amydiehl suggests that Trump is trying every identity-based attack on Harris to see what sticks, indicating that his focus on her racial identity may be part of a broader strategy to undermine her credibility and appeal.

4. The tweet by @ccadelago suggests that Trump's window to define Harris is closing, and that his focus on her racial identity may be an attempt to gain traction in the final weeks of the campaign.

5. The tweet by @jessesingal suggests that Trump talking a lot about what race Harris is or isn't will be very good for his campaign, indicating that there may be a segment of the electorate that responds positively to these types of attacks.

6. Overall, while it is difficult to predict the impact of Trump's focus on election security, immigration, and Harris's racial identity on voters, the data suggests that it could be a risky strategy that may not pay off in the long run.

ChatGPT and Meta AI both summarized these points without providing specifics like Grok did, but in general the AIs actually agree on the basics here. It’s risky for Trump to continue to make race-tinged attacks on Harris. However, there’s a bigger risk for Trump that I wanted to explore with the AIs, and that’s Trump losing the new cycle.

All the AIs agreed that Harris, in the last two weeks, has received more free media than Trump. Trump instinctively hates this, as free media has been the horse he’s ridden for the last eight or nine years. Trump desperately wants the headlines back, and he’s not getting them. The one-two punch of Harris and Biden’s prisoner swap with Russia (a diplomatic win) has kept Trump out, and with the Olympics going on, Trump is unlikely to find a way to get on top. So he does what he can to stay relevant. I mean, most of the world has already moved on from the attempted assassination, though it was less than a month ago.

I asked the three AIs: “Do you agree that Harris has gotten more free media than Trump in the last few weeks? If Harris continues to lead in free media, can we make any predictions as to the swing of voters?”

Meta AI wrote me a book, but also included some predictions.

Predicting voter swing based on free media is challenging, but if Harris maintains her media lead, she might see:

1. Increased support among undecided voters: 2-5% swing

2. Improved numbers among key demographics: 3-7% swing among groups like women, minorities, or young voters

3. A stronger position in battleground states: 1-3% swing in crucial states like Pennsylvania, Florida, or Arizona

Grok quoted Nick Fuentes as a source (eww), but generally agreed with Meta AI. ChatGPT punted and spewed a word salad based on a POLITICO article.

It appears that between now and the Democratic National Convention, it’s all “glow-up” for Harris, with Trump sounding shrill in his attempts to make something stick. But I wanted to see the downside. I asked the AIs: “What is the one issue that would lose the most voters for Harris should she say something unpopular?”

Grok:

Based on the information provided, one key issue that could lose Kamala Harris a significant number of voters is her stance on abortion. While she does talk about it and has a chance to win some swing voters by doing so, it is still a sensitive and divisive topic that can be difficult to persuade swing voters to vote exclusively on. The tweet by @DLeonhardt suggests that Harris needs to be careful about how she addresses abortion, as it can be a tricky issue to navigate when trying to win over swing voters.

ChatGPT:

The one issue that could potentially cause Kamala Harris to lose the most voters if she expresses an unpopular stance is the economy, particularly regarding inflation and economic management. Economic issues are often the top priority for voters across the political spectrum. If Harris were to propose policies perceived as detrimental to economic stability, such as high taxes, excessive government spending, or regulations that could hinder business growth, it could alienate a significant portion of the electorate.

Economic concerns, especially in times of economic uncertainty or hardship, tend to be a decisive factor in elections. Voters prioritize their financial well-being and may react strongly against policies they perceive as threatening their economic security​ (CivicScience)​​ (24/7 Wall St.)​. Therefore, any misstep or unpopular stance on economic issues could have a substantial impact on voter support.

Meta AI:

Based on current political trends and voter sensitivities, the one issue that could potentially lose the most voters for Kamala Harris if she takes an unpopular stance is:

Immigration

Specifically, if Harris were to take a stance that is perceived as too soft on border security, too lenient on undocumented immigration, or too radical on immigration reform, she could risk alienating a significant number of voters.

This includes:

• Moderate Democrats who prioritize border security and enforcement

• Independent voters who are concerned about immigration's impact on jobs and national security

• Some Republican voters who might be open to supporting Harris if she takes a more centrist approach

Harris' position on immigration would need to balance compassion, border security, and a pathway to citizenship to maintain broad support. Taking an unpopular stance could lead to:

• Loss of support from moderate Democrats and independents

• Increased scrutiny from Republicans and conservative media

• Potential damage to her electability and ability to build a broad coalition

Keep in mind that voter sensitivities can shift, and other issues like healthcare, climate change, or economic policy could also become critical. However, based on current trends, immigration is a particularly sensitive issue.

One AI says it’s abortion, one says the economy, and one says immigration. They don’t agree at all.

I think this reflects a truth (besides the fact that AIs are basically dumb). Americans don’t know exactly what issues represent a problem for them in supporting Harris. Many Harris supporters are just glad the Democrats solved their Biden problem, but haven’t taken time to consider the issues they expect from Harris.

I think this works to Harris’s advantage. She can tell voters what they want to hear, and if she wins, she can govern based on whatever she wants to do, which I’m not entirely sure of myself. In any case, if she wins, Harris will claim a mandate from the voters to do whatever it is she supports, even if the voters got bait and switched. Those voters should be happy because she’s not Trump, right? (Guaranteed, the minute she wins, they’ll forget the gratitude of her beating Trump.)

Also, to me this proves the point that nobody really knows what events might swing the election. The war in Israel could erupt at any moment to a massive conflict in Lebanon with Hezbollah, or direct conflict with Iran. That would polarize voters looking to Harris for some kind of position.

The recent stock market 500-point fall associated with a coming jobs report indicates the economy could be the top issue. The arrest of two Mexican drug kingpins, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, and Joaquin Guzman Lopez, leaders of the Sinaloa and Chapitos gangs, might bring fentanyl and the border to the top.

I don’t see exactly how abortion will be the number one issue, but it could be, as women are an extremely important demographic in the election. And of course, racism, which none of the AIs selected, is going to be a concern.

Events will drive the election and I believe it’s going to remain close, as these things have cycles—they breathe. After the DNC bounce, Trump may make a comeback. Biden might have an excessive senior moment, calling into question the 25th Amendment. Harris might say something dumb.

It was enlightening to see how the AIs responded, but it came right back to this: we just don’t know.

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