"Why is it that God placed so much oil in so many politically unstable and hostile places? At least we have Canada, although even if Biden had not canceled the Keystone pipeline, it would not have been open for business until next year. Republicans might also want to sanction Canadian oil in retaliation for the breakup of the trucker protest. Who knows?"
I'd argue that it's less about a God placing fields in those areas, as much as those fields permit hostile and otherwise unstable political regimes to survive, precisely as we're observing now. If Russia wasn't sitting on a lot of oil, I believe the Putin regime would be collecting dust in the history books. Ditto for the House of Saud as well.
I can't speak for the Canadians, though. I fear that if we sanction them, they'll make up for the energy shortfall and retaliate by sending barrages of Timbits over the border.
That was the plan, but it could change depending on market conditions, security of delivery, and transportation costs. The oil companies have been burnt too many times to rush into drilling and production, so we are stuck with an uneven oil supply - boom or bust. We need a long-term set of rules not subject to the whims of regulators and executive branch politics. Congress is too lazy, too partisan and too incompetent to pass real, definitive legislation.
Oil coming from Canada from the pipeline would still be subject to market forces. If the price of oil went up in world markets, we'd still be paying more here even with the pipline (which I supported).
We don't have an oil shortage now. We have a price spike.
For sure, the pipeline alone would have little effect on prices. However, that's not the only supply option available to a President and a Congress who have concern for the financial interest of USA citizens.
The assumptions in Bulwark aren't cast in stone. Things do not have to be that way. It also seems one of the thresholds they mention is long gone.
"The reality is that it’s very likely no one was more pleased that Keystone XL’s permits were canceled than TC Energy (née Trans Canada). Oil sand extraction is expensive, to the point of only being profitable when the cost per barrel is above a certain point—about $70 a barrel."
Oil is indeed coming in from Canada. Is your assumption that rail is more cost effective, environmentally friendly and secure than pipelines? Years ago, I worked on a proposal to transport pulverized coal slurry by pipeline instead of lump coal by railroad and it was almost economical. Dewatering costs, not transporting, were a major impediment.
Good information. XL expansion should have been just one of many options for delivering oil. I have no idea what its capacity would have been, but it would have been powered by electricity. We need more production.
Perhaps: I'm not familiar with oil refineries, and whether they're able to take different quality of crude at the same facility without altering their infrastructure.
Big projects can't be started after they are needed. This is obvious but more people than you would think have no idea of how much lag there is between identifying a need and producing a solution. Just obtaining parts and pieces can take six years or more for large generator stators, step-up transformers and pressure vessels. Similarly, pipelines require custom piping, valves, motors, pumps and software to implement safety features.
Large infrastructure projects require long lead times. That's why the pipeline was being built before it was temporarily shut down in 2019. President Biden killed it upon taking office. Republicans pushing for more domestic production will not necessarily drive prices higher. Biden and his band of far-left administrators have earned every bit of criticism they get. Thinking ahead (or simply thinking) would lessen the problems we face in difficult times.
You are correct that Republicans are playing politics but if you listen to administration officials make excuses for killing the USA economy you might discover they aren't the only ones.
"Why is it that God placed so much oil in so many politically unstable and hostile places? At least we have Canada, although even if Biden had not canceled the Keystone pipeline, it would not have been open for business until next year. Republicans might also want to sanction Canadian oil in retaliation for the breakup of the trucker protest. Who knows?"
I'd argue that it's less about a God placing fields in those areas, as much as those fields permit hostile and otherwise unstable political regimes to survive, precisely as we're observing now. If Russia wasn't sitting on a lot of oil, I believe the Putin regime would be collecting dust in the history books. Ditto for the House of Saud as well.
I can't speak for the Canadians, though. I fear that if we sanction them, they'll make up for the energy shortfall and retaliate by sending barrages of Timbits over the border.
Fun fact to keep in mind: most of the oil Keystone XL was to carry was going to be exported to other markets, and not used within in the USA.
That was the plan, but it could change depending on market conditions, security of delivery, and transportation costs. The oil companies have been burnt too many times to rush into drilling and production, so we are stuck with an uneven oil supply - boom or bust. We need a long-term set of rules not subject to the whims of regulators and executive branch politics. Congress is too lazy, too partisan and too incompetent to pass real, definitive legislation.
Oil coming from Canada from the pipeline would still be subject to market forces. If the price of oil went up in world markets, we'd still be paying more here even with the pipline (which I supported).
We don't have an oil shortage now. We have a price spike.
For sure, the pipeline alone would have little effect on prices. However, that's not the only supply option available to a President and a Congress who have concern for the financial interest of USA citizens.
Item #3 from JVL at the Bulwark is useful, and brings some other market forces at play for why KXL really wouldn't be helping much/at all.
https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/the-road-to-nuclear-escalation
The assumptions in Bulwark aren't cast in stone. Things do not have to be that way. It also seems one of the thresholds they mention is long gone.
"The reality is that it’s very likely no one was more pleased that Keystone XL’s permits were canceled than TC Energy (née Trans Canada). Oil sand extraction is expensive, to the point of only being profitable when the cost per barrel is above a certain point—about $70 a barrel."
Oil is indeed coming in from Canada. Is your assumption that rail is more cost effective, environmentally friendly and secure than pipelines? Years ago, I worked on a proposal to transport pulverized coal slurry by pipeline instead of lump coal by railroad and it was almost economical. Dewatering costs, not transporting, were a major impediment.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Canadian-Oil-by-Rail-Exports-To-US-Keep-Rising.html
Do you know how many oil pipelines current cross the border? Did you note how much oil would have come through the XL expansion?
https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/energy-sources-distribution/clean-fossil-fuels/pipelines/faqs-federally-regulated-petroleum-pipelines-canada/5893#h-1-4
Good information. XL expansion should have been just one of many options for delivering oil. I have no idea what its capacity would have been, but it would have been powered by electricity. We need more production.
We produce plenty, it's just we're a net exporter: and everything is interconnected, so market shocks are gonna affect us.
Perhaps: I'm not familiar with oil refineries, and whether they're able to take different quality of crude at the same facility without altering their infrastructure.
That said: please note that we're still producing more oil than 2009. https://twitter.com/TheValuesVoter/status/1501247365122039809
I like this chart better. It doesn't prove much but it does show the effect of Covid. I'm not sure what your statement about 2009 means.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2562/us-crude-oil-production-historical-chart
Just pointing out that as of 2009 we've steadily increased oil production, excepting the COVID dip.
So even with expansion of renewables, we're still producing more oil than ever.
I really miss having a President that understood the worlds dependence on and volatility towards energy.
Big projects can't be started after they are needed. This is obvious but more people than you would think have no idea of how much lag there is between identifying a need and producing a solution. Just obtaining parts and pieces can take six years or more for large generator stators, step-up transformers and pressure vessels. Similarly, pipelines require custom piping, valves, motors, pumps and software to implement safety features.
Large infrastructure projects require long lead times. That's why the pipeline was being built before it was temporarily shut down in 2019. President Biden killed it upon taking office. Republicans pushing for more domestic production will not necessarily drive prices higher. Biden and his band of far-left administrators have earned every bit of criticism they get. Thinking ahead (or simply thinking) would lessen the problems we face in difficult times.
You are correct that Republicans are playing politics but if you listen to administration officials make excuses for killing the USA economy you might discover they aren't the only ones.