The problem with conspiracy theories

Garbage in, garbage out

I’ve always had a problem with conspiracy theories. I tend to be a logical and truthful person. If anything gets under my skin, it’s people who knowingly spread lies to try to get others stirred up.

And I’ll admit that I have a problem. When I see people posting obvious falsehoods online, I feel compelled to put the truth out there. Oftentimes, people don’t take it well so I try to limit these interactions. Correcting people on the internet can be very time consuming and isn’t exactly a good use of a precious resource.

But as a Christian and conservative, I believe that the truth is an ideal worth fighting for and advancing. Truth is objective. It’s not a matter of opinion.

I grew up watching “Star Wars,” but one of my least favorite parts of the movie was when the ghost of Obi-Wan Kenobi explained to Luke Skywalker why he said his father was dead.

“What I told you was true, from a certain point of view,” Kenobi said. “You're going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view.”

A less charitable view of the incident is that Kenobi lied to Luke to steer him in the direction he wanted. This is called “manipulation.” Maybe the “good guys” in “Star Wars” weren’t so good. (There’s a whole faction of people who think the Empire was actually the good side when the entire “Star Wars” story is considered. I’m skeptical, but here is an example.)

I’ll admit that there are times when lying is necessary and the right thing to do. For example, lying to protect intelligence sources or deny information to the enemy is acceptable, but we should be able to agree that lying to foster hatred and division for your own political gain is wrong.

I’ll also admit that lying goes with the territory in politics. Politicians often shade the truth as Obi-Wan Kenobi did. That doesn’t make it right, but it is somewhat expected. And that’s a reason why politicians tend to be distrusted.

I say all that to say this: Conspiracy theories are lies.

Conspiracy theories are different from conspiracies. There are real conspiracies that can be proven. For one example, there was a real international communist conspiracy to overthrow governments. We know this because KGB documents uncovered after the fall of the Soviet Union confirm it, although there was plenty of evidence at the time as well.

Another more recent example is the January 6 insurrection. (Here is the definition for those who criticize my use of the word.) There is ample evidence of a conspiracy to interrupt the Electoral College proceedings and change the outcome of the election. There have been at least 10 convictions for seditious conspiracy stemming from the events of January 6.

Contrast that with Donald Trump’s claims about election fraud leading up to the insurrection. Trump’s lawyers were unable to present evidence in court that backed up their claims to the media. (And they did have the opportunity. Not all the cases were dismissed on standing.) John Eastman is being disbarred for his role in developing the scheme, and Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro were forced to apologize for their outlandish claims. Fox News paid $787 million in a defamation settlement for its lies about Dominion Voting Systems, and just a few days ago, Gateway Pundit settled another defamation suit brought by two election workers in Georgia for $148 million.

The point here is that the evidence does not support Trump’s claims of widespread election fraud in 2020. The evidence points to the fact that Trump was and is lying.

There’s a big difference between Trump’s attempt to steal the election, a conspiracy, and Trump’s claims about election fraud, a conspiracy theory. That difference is evidence that will stand up to scrutiny.

A lot of people consider conspiracy theories harmless. Who really cares if you believe that the Earth is flat or that Elvis is still alive and hanging out at Walmart?

But other conspiracy theories are more insidious. The election fraud conspiracy theory is only one example. More than 1,000 Americans who took Donald Trump at his word now have criminal convictions on their records. Many are still in jail and will be for a long time (unless Trump wins and pardons them.)

We saw another example of this a few days ago, again involving Trump. Trump’s lies about FEMA and the response to Hurricane Helene are well-documented and debunked, but now they are directly impacting relief efforts. CNN reported on Monday that FEMA operations in several North Carolina counties were paused after authorities arrested a man who allegedly threatened FEMA workers.

William Jacob Parsons, 44, was arrested outside a store that is being used as a FEMA distribution site. Parsons was armed with a handgun and rifle and is being charged with Going Armed to the Terror of the Public, a misdemeanor. Newsweek reported that social media profiles apparently belonging to Parsons read like a greatest hits of recent conspiracy theories including COVID-19, vaccines, voting systems, and references to III-Percenters, a right-wing anti-government ideology.

As a result of the threat, which can likely be traced back to Trump’s claims, FEMA has to pause operations and enhance security. Law enforcement also has to divert attention from helping those in need to be handling Parsons and others like him. Thankfully, no one was injured or killed.

The incident reminds me a lot of another conspiracy theory-inspired attack. Back in 2016, the “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory held that Democrats were involved in a satanic ring of child traffickers and abusers. The ring was centered on a District of Columbia pizza parlor called Comet Ping Pong.

In December 2016, a gunman walked into Comet Ping Pong and opened fire with an AR-15. Thankfully, no one was injured but the gunman went to prison. The “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory ultimately morphed into QAnon.

QAnon has led to a string of violent incidents as well. During the 2020 campaign, a QAnon adherent live-streamed her trip to New York to kill Joe Biden before being arrested. In 2021, a California man who was involved in QAnon murdered his children because he believed they possessed “serpent DNA.” There have been many others.

At least three US spree killings have been linked to conspiracy theories about race and “replacement theory,” the idea that minorities are replacing white people. The perpetrators in the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018 (11 dead), the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019 (23 dead), and the Buffalo grocery store shooting in 2022 (10 dead) all referenced hatred of minorities and/or immigrants as a motive. (The 2019 Christchurch, New Zealand mosque shootings (51 dead) also fits this category.)

And then there was the Utah man killed resisting an FBI warrant in 2023 after making threats against President Biden. The man posted about Democrats “destroying America,” common MAGA rhetoric, and called himself a “MAGA Trumper” and “Democrat eradicator” per the Salt Lake Tribune.

A bombing in Nashville on Christmas Day 2020 was also traced by the FBI back to the perpetrator’s desire “to end his own life, driven in part by a totality of life stressors – including paranoia, long-held individualized beliefs adopted from several eccentric conspiracy theories, and the loss of stabilizing anchors and deteriorating interpersonal relationships.” Thankfully again, no innocent lives were lost in the attack. I’ve seen the devastation from the bomb firsthand, and it was a massive blast very close to Nashville’s club district.

There have been incidents on the other side as well. Notably a 2013 shooting at the Family Research Council (one dead) by a man who was angry about the group’s position on same-sex marriage and the 2017 congressional baseball shooting (four wounded) were carried out by leftists.

There were also the recent attempts on the life of Donald Trump. Although the first shooter was not political, the second would-be assassin was a former Republican who believed that Trump was a threat to the country. An alleged third attempt last weekend is disputed after another Trump supporter was arrested by county law enforcement near a Trump rally in California with weapons in his vehicle.

Democrats at times have overstepped the bounds of decency in their rhetoric, and I don’t defend or excuse that. What I do point out is that they have also largely scaled back their rhetoric while Donald Trump has escalated his. I’m sure there are examples of recent over-the-top claims from the left, but I’m not hearing this sort of thing from prominent Democrats.

Even knowing the tinderbox that is our national politics at the moment, Trump chooses to continue making baseless and inflammatory claims. Trump continues to claim that the other side and immigrants are destroying America, even after the violence that has been traced to such rhetoric. Trump has even encouraged violence such as his suggestion a few weeks ago invoking “The Purge” that “one really violent day… one rough hour, and I mean real rough” could solve America’s crime problem. As recently as last weekend, Trump was still saying that Kamala Harris wants to destroy America. This is deeply irresponsible.

I don’t advocate or support political violence of any sort and I categorically condemn violence against Donald Trump, but I don’t see the same sort of talk from Kamala Harris. When I look at her speeches and interviews, her criticism of Trump is more traditional and more focused rather than the wild aspersions that Trump makes about her and President Biden.

But it doesn’t take Democrat threats and rhetoric to make Donald Trump seem like a threat. The most disturbing information against Donald Trump comes from The Former Guy himself and Republicans who served with him in his first (and hopefully only) Administration. Operation Let Him Talk is real and effective.

Trump could tone down his language and choose not to spread (and start) lies and conspiracy theories, but the truth is that his entire campaign is built on lies. Lies about the Bidens, lies about Harris, lies about the economy, lies about immigrants. You name it.

There are a lot of disturbing things about America’s political discourse these days, but the violently inflammatory rhetoric and fearmongering conspiracy theories from the right are most of them. We’ve already had too much political violence and more is probably on the way.

Just as I think that people should protect themselves against diseases with vaccines, we should also immunize ourselves against destructive conspiracy theories. There are several ways to do that.

First, don’t just blindly click and share articles that you see on the internet. Consider whether it rings true rather than just supporting your preconceived biases. We’ve all bit on internet hoaxes and we all need to do better.

Remember my maxim, “If it sounds too stupid to be true, it probably is.” Unfortunately, as with Trump’s “Purge” quote, just being stupid doesn’t mean it isn’t true. As Ronald Reagan liked to say, “Trust but verify.” Use objective (i.e. not partisan) sources to determine whether a claim is true or not. Don’t reject the truth just because it doesn’t support your biases.

Is likely that immigrants are eating cats? Does it make sense that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would shut off hurricane aid in a swing state a month prior to the election? Do Democrats really want to destroy America? Does Donald Trump? If we take off our partisan blinders, we will find that these closely-held beliefs really don’t make much sense.

Consider the sender. Partisan sources likely exaggerate or outright lie. For years, I heard Republicans lament that the “mainstream media” was biased toward the Democrats. Ironically, in rejecting the “mainstream media” they embraced even less trustworthy sources of information (refer back to the defamation settlements above).

Learn which sources are objective and can be trusted. There are several organizations that rank media bias, such as this one from Ad Fontes. I suggest picking sources such as the Wall Street Journal (an online subscription is only $4 per month) from the sweet spot of high value and low bias while avoiding the fringes of the chart.

https://adfontesmedia.com/interactive-media-bias-chart/

Also, consider whether predictions and claims can stand on their own or whether they have to be explained and massaged to fit reality. For example, after Marjorie Taylor Green posted about how “they” control the weather, numerous Republicans jumped up to explain how she really meant cloud seeding. Except that’s not what she said and it’s obviously not what she meant. Not only should liars like Greene be dismissed, so should the people who defend them.

If you have to turn your head, squint your eyes, and look at a claim just right to make it seem legitimate, like Kenobi’s claim about Anakin Skywalker, it’s probably not the truth. At the very least, it’s probably an exaggeration or a subjective claim based on, as Kenobi said, a certain point of view. For example, illegal immigrants are not invaders in any legal or objective sense, but that’s a truth in many people’s point of view, but it’s not true.

As a wise man once said, if your worldview conflicts with reality, it’s your worldview that needs to change because reality won’t. So don’t fill your mind with obvious lies from people who can’t be trusted. Garbage in, garbage out.

Finally, we have to start rejecting obvious lies and calling out the liars who tell them rather than rallying around them and explaining away their lies. While it is understandable to have differing points of view and perspectives, rationalizing and defending false statements that are manufactured out of whole cloth is not.

I hope that the American people will reject the politics of fear, lies, and conspiracy theories coming from Donald Trump and his MAGA supporters. If this sort of behavior is rewarded, we will only get more of it. The claims will have to become more outlandish to keep gaining attention and sooner or later those who claim that America is being destroyed will have to show that they are vanquishing the “enemy from within.” You can only drag out the drama for so long before you have to put up or shut up.

A movement based on grievance and fear has to keep finding a new bogeyman to keep people afraid. That means more conspiracy theories and more senseless violence.

NOTE: I’m adding this after publication but the motive of Parsons, the North Carolina FEMA vigilante, has been confirmed as stemming from social media reports that aid was not reaching victims. Refer to MyFox8 and the AP.

ELECTORAL UPDATE: I got a little behind n the electoral updates, but the situation is essentially unchanged. The race remains very close across the swing states. Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight averages differ on three states. RCP has Trump up in Nevada and Pennsylvania while FiveThirtyEight shows a dead heat in Wisconsin.

As I’ve noted previously, this map uses the RCP averages, which tend to be slightly favorable to Trump, and all the battlegrounds are well within the margins of error.

GEORGIA UPDATES: A judge blocked the Georgia Election Board’s hand-count mandate. In a separate case, a court also held that county officials are required to certify election results. Yesterday was the first day of early voting in Georgia and turnout set a record.

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