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Aug 9, 2022·edited Aug 9, 2022Author

"He wasn’t even invited to John McCain’s funeral, the loathing had erupted as if from a volcano of revulsion."

I doubt that this was because the "Ex-Presidents Club" was shunning him, and more related to the mutual animosity between Trump and McCain that went back as far as 1999[1] and McCain's widow not wanting him there[2].

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/donald-trump-on-john-mccain-in-1999-does-being-captured-make-you-a-hero/2018/08/07/a2849b1c-9a56-11e8-8d5e-c6c594024954_story.html

[2] https://time.com/5461466/cindy-mccain-trump-john-mccain-funeral/

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(Figured that I'd toss this into the discussion as well.) One of the more interesting questions now is whether Trump will run in 2024 or not. While this raid puts pressure on him to enter the race officially (investigating the actual political opponent of the sitting president gives the FBI heartburn), another signal worth considering is that Truth Social will not turn into a cash cow for Trump any time soon, as the SPAC that raised funds for the merger (and would flow to Trump and other owners) is now asking for a one-year extension on their deadline to close the deal[1]:

"Digital World Acquisition Corp., a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), disclosed late Friday it is seeking shareholder approval to delay the September 8 deadline by a year to allow time to consummate its planned acquisition of Truth Social owner Trump Media & Technology Group.

Shares of the blank-check company fell 3% Monday morning. Truth Social, which had a messy launch earlier this year, aims to be an alternative to traditional social media and has promised to 'stand up to the tyranny of Big Tech.'"

"The efforts to buy time come as the deal faces a flurry of legal issues and regulatory scrutiny amid what experts have warned are red flags about the transaction."

How wealthy Trump actually is has been an open question for decades, but with the DWAC SPAC cash locked up for another year, it cuts out another revenue stream to Trump. I can see this adding pressure to run again, but I can also see it as pressure to keep him out of the race, as he currently has pretty free hands to spend his PAC money as he sees fit:

"Timing of an official announcement may not matter for the electorate, but for the de facto frontrunner, it is a matter of serious financial significance. As a candidate in fact, but not in filing, Trump can do pretty much whatever he wants with probably more than $100 million of the quarter of a billion dollars he raised in the wake of the 2020 election when he was begging money for a non-existent Election Defense Fund to help him overturn the result. The money instead was directed to his leadership PAC, which has few restrictions on how or how much money Trump wants to spend. He can pay himself and his family members for services, cover travel costs, stage campaign rallies (as long as he doesn’t say the magic words), and even spend $60,000 on a fashion designer. Very much in the way the Clintons used their family foundation as a slush fund in the years between campaigns, Trump is exploiting the loopholes and lack of enforcement in the system to subsidize his lifestyle and keep himself politically relevant."

"Since then, he has kept up a steady barrage of fundraising appeals to his army of small-dollar donors with scammy, spammy messages and even a plea to replace his broken down “Trump Force One.” A Democratic group alleging that Trump is running a shadow campaign through the PAC said in a complaint to the Federal Election Commission that the former president’s group is spending $100,000 a week on Facebook ads and 'has consistently raised more than $1 million per week.' But that grift ends—or at least shifts—as soon as Trump files his candidacy papers with the Federal Election Commission. Trump’s PAC can give $5,000 to his own campaign once it begins, just like any other candidate, but no more."[2]

Anyhoo - more grist for the mill.

[1] https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/08/investing/trump-spac-dwac-merger/index.html

[2] https://thedispatch.com/p/trump-is-already-a-candidate-so-treat

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Aug 9, 2022Liked by Chris J. Karr

Trump and his lawyers have the search warrant: they could make that public - but they won't.

It's also my understanding that Biden was not notified that the FBI would be doing this raid - which is also appropriate. Let the FBI get warrants and do their jobs without guidance from POTUS.

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I would not at all be surprised to learn Trump mishandled records. Arrogant people, like most national political figures, think they can do things their way. I would be extremely surprised if Trump were the only politician to do so. It's becoming more apparent that Trump will be the only one (until the next Republican President) the media and the DOJ will go after.

I'm not sure the speculation about the basis of the warrant is correct. It could be more or less serious or just a fishing expedition. Trump's lawyers could probably release the warrant, but I heard on FNC (of course) that, given a sympathetic judge, the warrant could list anything they expected to find - factual or not. The FBI does not have a sterling record in this regard.

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WSJ has an article (paywalled) stating that the FBI removed 10 boxes of documents from Mar-a-lago. So 15 removed a couple of months ago, and now another 10 boxes.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fbi-search-of-trumps-florida-home-mar-a-lago-is-criticized-by-republicans-11660049490

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