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Sep 28, 2022Liked by Chris J. Karr

A few things to note:

Iran has been supplying arms to both Ukraine and Russia. At the least, Iranian shells and mortars have been sent to Ukraine.

China to date has not provided any known support for Russia in arms/equipments/personnel... It's interesting watching that play out.

Russia is indeed going to continue being an issue as long as it is a zombie of the Russian Empire/USSR. The mobilization may tip the component republics (Dagestan and Chechnya for two examples) to split off, ending Russian imperialism.

Right now Europe has the gas they need to get through the winter, though people may want to get an extra sweater and quilt to help use less energy.

Russia is sending their mobilized personnel to the front already, with no training or real equipment. They aren't providing even winter gear: their soldiers are gonna freeze to death, if they aren't killed or captured.

If Putin does use a nuke, it is not unfeasible that China (and India) would rebuke then and side with NATO in the response. It also will not play well at home, where the bargain is that the Muscovites and St Petersburgians don't feel any ill affects from the war: bringing nuclear war to their door will violate that agreement.

These are perilous times, and while the danger of nuclear war hasn't been this high in decades I'm happy that thus far we've had a steady hand at the till to counter Putin/Russia. We've seen appeasement (Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014) lead only to delaying and increasing the cost of dealing with Russia's aggression: if it doesn't stop here then the next go-around will be more expensive yet.

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