I'm rooting for a slim Youngkin victory tomorrow, not because I have any particular love for him or dislike for McAuliffe, but because Democrats need a wake-up call nationally to stop pretending to be Postmodern Critical Theorists with wokeism, CRT, etc., and to resume being the Feet On The Ground Retail Politicians that get stuff done for their voters.
I fear that if Democrats continue as they are, the moderate middle that put them over Trump won't be around there to do it again, especially as Trump gets the benefit of time smoothing over the rough edges of his administration and Democrats get to deal with the rough edges, still sharp from recent memory.
Also in some other states(particularly in Arizona, Texas, and other red and formerly red states), the GOP suburban hemorrhaging was primarily due to Trump. In the case of Virginia, the suburbs started giving out starting in the late 90s. For example, Bush won almost every NoVA county and city except Arlington and Alexandria in 2000. Four years later, he lost Fairfax County, the most populous county in VA, but he won a bigger margin the rural areas to win the state. By 2008, Fairfax tipped heavily left, and two more formerly red counties in NoVA(Loudoun and Prince William). And the Richmond suburbs(Henrico) started to vote Democrat. Southeast VA was still largely a swing area with a combination of blue and red cities/counties. That is why VA was a still a swing state in 2008 and 2012, and even as late as the 2014 midterms, when Ed Gillespie nearly upset Mark Warner(less than one point) for Senate. It was only when the GOP embraced Trump when the bottom fell out and SE Virginia and most of the suburbs fell to the Dems, giving them complete power in the state.
So the suburban losses for the GOP in Virginia were decades in the making and were enough to make VA a purple state during a 25 year trend. Trumpism was akin to pouring gasoline on a slow burning fire, and turned Virginia from a purple swing state, to a solid blue state. And that happened in just 5 years.
This upcoming election tomorrow will potentially give hints as to whether the Virginia’s brisk blueward shift over the past 5 years was primarily revulsion to Trump, and will revert to a “minus Trump” partisan lean. Or that Virginia’s Democratic solidified realignment is here to stay for the near future. That is what I’m most interested to know. We shall see.
Virginia has been trending blue for quite awhile it will be interesting to see if the polls are right or if this is just another example of them being off. It's also why framing is so important in politics today. Republicans were able to pin every crazy democrat meme directly to Gov. black face.
It's also why the democrats shouldn't have allowed him to run again after the mess that happened years ago.
Virginia is what a political expert coined as a state where voters like their politics played at the 40 yard line of either side. It’s a state that prefers candidates that are moderate temperamentally and to a lesser extent, ideologically. One needs to remember that Bernie Sanders got demolished in the Dem primaries in both 2016 and 2020. Terry McAuliffe is considered quite moderate for his party, as his governance in many respects mirrored that of his friend Bill Clinton. Ralph Northam has actually governed to McAuliffes left. He beat GOP Ken Cuccinelli by a very slim margin in 2013. That time, the GOP gubernatorial primary was between then Lt. Gov Bill Bolling, a pragmatic conservative, and then AG Cuccinelli, equally as conservative but a hard edged culture warrior. Many Republicans wanted something of a “He fights!” candidate, so they chose Cuccinelli. As Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political notes, had the GOP nominated Bill Bolling, McAuliffe would’ve lost to him. If you look at Ralph Northam, Tim Kaine, and Mark Warner, these statewide Democrats have one thing in common. They are temperamentally moderate, and ideologically within the the middle of the Dem party(moderately left of center).
I think that many Democrats have deluded themselves into thinking their newfound strength and election wins during the Trump era is due to an embrace of left progressivism. When in reality, many people voted Democrat to reject Trump and move on from Trumpism. The national Democrats misreading of the tea leaves, has hurt McAuliffe significantly. McAuliffe and many Democrats in Virginia have also made a big mistake in downplaying and having a casual disregard for woke extremism in schools and other institutions. While still not yet overly widespread in our institutions and culture, wokeness has been a growing problem over the past several years, and many of the people in Virginia concerned about this trend, aren’t fire breathing MAGA supporters, but many center to center left voters. I don’t blame, and am supportive of the harsh anger that some parents have hurled at school board meetings. These school boards in the districts where wokeness is an issue have tended had a cavalier disregard for parents, and so the anger is well justified. I really think that this issue has put done a lot to put McAuliffe in his predicament. He also learned the hard way that most voters are more interested in what the candidates will do as governor than about Donald Trump. These voters know the difference between a Trump sycophant and a Trump voter. Youngkin fits the latter description, and many swing voters didn’t buy McAuliffe’s attempt to conflate the two. His gaffe at the debate certainly added fuel to the fire, but only brought more attention to what was already brewing among the electorate.
As for the state curriculum, most incidents of wokeness come about due to the actions woke teachers and woke administrators, and not so much due to statewide decisions made regarding curriculum. Parents can in a way change the state curriculum in schools, through gubernatorial and legislative elections. I know some teachers through the church I attend. And they told me that given how many times they have to deal with parents complaining about the D’s and F’s their kids got, it’s a probably good thing they don’t have direct veto power over curriculum! Otherwise teachers might get exasperated and quit in droves. And the curriculum would probably be dumbed down to placate the parents who feel the teachers are shafting their kids with D’s and F’s.
Since Glenn Youngkin is leading among independents, and McAuliffe has inherent benefits of running in a blue leaning state, it is a 50-50 race. The GOP also has the edge when it comes to base voter enthusiasm. The candidate that will win will be one that be the most successful in driving voter turnout among their base. Youngkin had a walk a narrow tightrope into not offending the MAGA base while not also offending swing voters(where Trump is unpopular). He might have accomplished just that.
I’m not going to make any predictions on the election. I already am betting on the Atlanta Braves winning the World Series, though my prediction that they would finish off the Astros yesterday turned out wrong. I still have more confidence the Braves will win than whoever will win the VA governors race. ;)
I'm rooting for a slim Youngkin victory tomorrow, not because I have any particular love for him or dislike for McAuliffe, but because Democrats need a wake-up call nationally to stop pretending to be Postmodern Critical Theorists with wokeism, CRT, etc., and to resume being the Feet On The Ground Retail Politicians that get stuff done for their voters.
I fear that if Democrats continue as they are, the moderate middle that put them over Trump won't be around there to do it again, especially as Trump gets the benefit of time smoothing over the rough edges of his administration and Democrats get to deal with the rough edges, still sharp from recent memory.
Also in some other states(particularly in Arizona, Texas, and other red and formerly red states), the GOP suburban hemorrhaging was primarily due to Trump. In the case of Virginia, the suburbs started giving out starting in the late 90s. For example, Bush won almost every NoVA county and city except Arlington and Alexandria in 2000. Four years later, he lost Fairfax County, the most populous county in VA, but he won a bigger margin the rural areas to win the state. By 2008, Fairfax tipped heavily left, and two more formerly red counties in NoVA(Loudoun and Prince William). And the Richmond suburbs(Henrico) started to vote Democrat. Southeast VA was still largely a swing area with a combination of blue and red cities/counties. That is why VA was a still a swing state in 2008 and 2012, and even as late as the 2014 midterms, when Ed Gillespie nearly upset Mark Warner(less than one point) for Senate. It was only when the GOP embraced Trump when the bottom fell out and SE Virginia and most of the suburbs fell to the Dems, giving them complete power in the state.
So the suburban losses for the GOP in Virginia were decades in the making and were enough to make VA a purple state during a 25 year trend. Trumpism was akin to pouring gasoline on a slow burning fire, and turned Virginia from a purple swing state, to a solid blue state. And that happened in just 5 years.
This upcoming election tomorrow will potentially give hints as to whether the Virginia’s brisk blueward shift over the past 5 years was primarily revulsion to Trump, and will revert to a “minus Trump” partisan lean. Or that Virginia’s Democratic solidified realignment is here to stay for the near future. That is what I’m most interested to know. We shall see.
Virginia has been trending blue for quite awhile it will be interesting to see if the polls are right or if this is just another example of them being off. It's also why framing is so important in politics today. Republicans were able to pin every crazy democrat meme directly to Gov. black face.
It's also why the democrats shouldn't have allowed him to run again after the mess that happened years ago.
Virginia is what a political expert coined as a state where voters like their politics played at the 40 yard line of either side. It’s a state that prefers candidates that are moderate temperamentally and to a lesser extent, ideologically. One needs to remember that Bernie Sanders got demolished in the Dem primaries in both 2016 and 2020. Terry McAuliffe is considered quite moderate for his party, as his governance in many respects mirrored that of his friend Bill Clinton. Ralph Northam has actually governed to McAuliffes left. He beat GOP Ken Cuccinelli by a very slim margin in 2013. That time, the GOP gubernatorial primary was between then Lt. Gov Bill Bolling, a pragmatic conservative, and then AG Cuccinelli, equally as conservative but a hard edged culture warrior. Many Republicans wanted something of a “He fights!” candidate, so they chose Cuccinelli. As Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political notes, had the GOP nominated Bill Bolling, McAuliffe would’ve lost to him. If you look at Ralph Northam, Tim Kaine, and Mark Warner, these statewide Democrats have one thing in common. They are temperamentally moderate, and ideologically within the the middle of the Dem party(moderately left of center).
I think that many Democrats have deluded themselves into thinking their newfound strength and election wins during the Trump era is due to an embrace of left progressivism. When in reality, many people voted Democrat to reject Trump and move on from Trumpism. The national Democrats misreading of the tea leaves, has hurt McAuliffe significantly. McAuliffe and many Democrats in Virginia have also made a big mistake in downplaying and having a casual disregard for woke extremism in schools and other institutions. While still not yet overly widespread in our institutions and culture, wokeness has been a growing problem over the past several years, and many of the people in Virginia concerned about this trend, aren’t fire breathing MAGA supporters, but many center to center left voters. I don’t blame, and am supportive of the harsh anger that some parents have hurled at school board meetings. These school boards in the districts where wokeness is an issue have tended had a cavalier disregard for parents, and so the anger is well justified. I really think that this issue has put done a lot to put McAuliffe in his predicament. He also learned the hard way that most voters are more interested in what the candidates will do as governor than about Donald Trump. These voters know the difference between a Trump sycophant and a Trump voter. Youngkin fits the latter description, and many swing voters didn’t buy McAuliffe’s attempt to conflate the two. His gaffe at the debate certainly added fuel to the fire, but only brought more attention to what was already brewing among the electorate.
As for the state curriculum, most incidents of wokeness come about due to the actions woke teachers and woke administrators, and not so much due to statewide decisions made regarding curriculum. Parents can in a way change the state curriculum in schools, through gubernatorial and legislative elections. I know some teachers through the church I attend. And they told me that given how many times they have to deal with parents complaining about the D’s and F’s their kids got, it’s a probably good thing they don’t have direct veto power over curriculum! Otherwise teachers might get exasperated and quit in droves. And the curriculum would probably be dumbed down to placate the parents who feel the teachers are shafting their kids with D’s and F’s.
Since Glenn Youngkin is leading among independents, and McAuliffe has inherent benefits of running in a blue leaning state, it is a 50-50 race. The GOP also has the edge when it comes to base voter enthusiasm. The candidate that will win will be one that be the most successful in driving voter turnout among their base. Youngkin had a walk a narrow tightrope into not offending the MAGA base while not also offending swing voters(where Trump is unpopular). He might have accomplished just that.
I’m not going to make any predictions on the election. I already am betting on the Atlanta Braves winning the World Series, though my prediction that they would finish off the Astros yesterday turned out wrong. I still have more confidence the Braves will win than whoever will win the VA governors race. ;)