Also I think its worth pointing out that Ole' Gov probably made the most idiotic statement I have ever heard uttered. "I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” I mean the dude deserved to lose, my God.
Considering the amount of failure that the dems have produced this year they deserve every loss they got. Why on earth did you not replace that guy? Why on earth would you try to make this about Trump while they are pretending that schools are teaching that white kids are evil and over all covid fatigue? Republicans can win with pure opposition that is basically why they exist. Dems need to have an actual plan and motivate people to show up. What about these last couple years have been motivating?
"There will be a lot of post-mortems but there are a couple of important takeaways. First, Republicans should realize that they can win in purple states without Trump. And since they’re going to win the red states anyway, isn’t winning the purple states what it’s really all about? The purple states are what you need to win the whole enchilada and not have to make up excuses about stolen elections."
Given the dilemma Republicans face in Trump being popular within the base, but manifestly unpopular outside it, I expect Youngkin's win to be studied and used as an example, of how a GOP candidate can successfully win elections with a Trumpy base in purple or blue states. I wouldn't say Virginia is a purple state. If you look at 2009, the last time the GOP won statewide before yesterday, Virginia was a swing state. And GOP governor Bob McDonnell won by a 17 point landslide over his Dem opponent. The year prior, Obama's win in Virginia closely mirrored the national average. The margin of swing from Obama's win to McDonnell's was 23 percent. Fast forward to 2021, Youngkin's win is just about 2 percent, and Biden won the year prior at just over 10 percent, resulting in a 12 percent partisan swing. And the GOP gains in the House of Delegates weren't as lopsided as it was in 2009. So I think many happy Republicans who claim Virginia is red or purple now are off by quite a lot.
"Another lesson is that Republicans seem to have found an issue that resonates with both independents and their base in education and critical race theory. This is true even though most people, like the guy interviewed below, can’t even explain what critical race theory is. They just know they don’t like it."
That guy in the video fits the stereotypical definition of a MAGA supporter. I don't know where he lives in Virginia, but I wouldn't be surprised if he lived in the ruby red Appalachian corridor of western Virginia. When one goes to places like blueish Loudoun and Fairfax counties, there are much higher percentages of Never Trump conservatives, and Biden voters who have higher levels of formal education, and are very affluent counties. They actually have a much more acute sense of what some of the woke extremism that while small relative to the size of the US, is to them a noticeable and growing phenomenon in K-12 schools, universities, and the corporate world, among other places. Whether we like it or not, people have come to use "Critical Race Theory" as the definitive description for any instances of woke extremism. Even if the actual definition of it differs than what people often associate with it as.
"Ending a pandemic and getting the economy moving again are tall orders, but now, on top of all that, Democrats have to counter the Republican charges about racist school curriculums and sexual deviants in the bathrooms. And they have to do it better than Terry McAuliffe did with his “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach” soundbite. The early exit poll shows that this issue was one of the most damaging to McAuliffe and Democrats need to find an answer that does not sound elitist or statist."
As long as too many left of center Democrats try to minimize, rationalize, and make cheap cop out excuses for the genuine concerns Americans have about cancel culture and woke toxicity, or apply the term "critical race theory" rather broadly to where it doesn't fit the original meaning, then they will continue to alienate voters. In blue northern Virginia, many well meaning moderates and liberals who voted for Biden are concerned about wokeness in our institutions. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them voted for Youngkin. Anecdotally, many of the conservations I've had with people concerned about this in my circles are Biden voters who are moderate to liberal, but not hard core leftists by any means. Among them, I know a few who voted for Youngkin. They are moderate Democrats.
"The big economic question will be whether inflation lingers until election season. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expects inflation to ease in the second half of 2022, possibly just in time for the election, but has also said that the reciprocal removal of the tariffs instituted by Donald Trump and maintained by Joe Biden could help to ease inflation earlier. After all, tariffs are taxes that make products more expensive. Personally, I expect inflation to ease as supply problems go away since a lot of the price increases can be traced to shortages."
I definitely agree. I think it is a good time for the Biden administration to continue lifting the Trump tariffs as they did with EU steel and aluminum. But they need to do much more of it, and I would prefer the tariff repeals be without conditions attached to the trading partner. This would really help our post-pandemic recovery take off.
I have more relatives in Virginia than any other state. I hope they contributed to the Republican successes there. The most impressive Republican winner in my opinion is Winsome Sears. We will hear more from her. A Marine, an MBA, an electrician entrepreneur, charismatic speaker for Conservatives with a smooth style. What more could we ask for except for her to be born a USA citizen?
Regarding Scher's take on the election, the thing is that Ralph Northam repaired his standing with the black community after that blackface incident. They were considerably more forgiving of his indiscretions than many woke white leftists. And these black voters certainly showed up to vote during the 2019 Virginia General Assembly off-year midterm elections. And compared to progressive whites, black Democrats have a more favorable view of Northam. The Democrats won full control of both houses of the legislature, and having Donald Trump as President certainly motivated black Democrats to vote. White progressives are more hit or miss in these kinds of elections. In a presidential election year, they will vote, but during non-POTUS elections a certain portion of these voters will check out if the Democratic candidate isn't sufficiently progressive to their tastes. But with Trump out of Twitter, and out of the political scene, there wasn't the boogie man the Democrats relied on for the past 5 years to get out the vote, so black voting rates fell closer to the pre-Trump midterm norm.
Also I think its worth pointing out that Ole' Gov probably made the most idiotic statement I have ever heard uttered. "I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” I mean the dude deserved to lose, my God.
Considering the amount of failure that the dems have produced this year they deserve every loss they got. Why on earth did you not replace that guy? Why on earth would you try to make this about Trump while they are pretending that schools are teaching that white kids are evil and over all covid fatigue? Republicans can win with pure opposition that is basically why they exist. Dems need to have an actual plan and motivate people to show up. What about these last couple years have been motivating?
"There will be a lot of post-mortems but there are a couple of important takeaways. First, Republicans should realize that they can win in purple states without Trump. And since they’re going to win the red states anyway, isn’t winning the purple states what it’s really all about? The purple states are what you need to win the whole enchilada and not have to make up excuses about stolen elections."
Given the dilemma Republicans face in Trump being popular within the base, but manifestly unpopular outside it, I expect Youngkin's win to be studied and used as an example, of how a GOP candidate can successfully win elections with a Trumpy base in purple or blue states. I wouldn't say Virginia is a purple state. If you look at 2009, the last time the GOP won statewide before yesterday, Virginia was a swing state. And GOP governor Bob McDonnell won by a 17 point landslide over his Dem opponent. The year prior, Obama's win in Virginia closely mirrored the national average. The margin of swing from Obama's win to McDonnell's was 23 percent. Fast forward to 2021, Youngkin's win is just about 2 percent, and Biden won the year prior at just over 10 percent, resulting in a 12 percent partisan swing. And the GOP gains in the House of Delegates weren't as lopsided as it was in 2009. So I think many happy Republicans who claim Virginia is red or purple now are off by quite a lot.
"Another lesson is that Republicans seem to have found an issue that resonates with both independents and their base in education and critical race theory. This is true even though most people, like the guy interviewed below, can’t even explain what critical race theory is. They just know they don’t like it."
That guy in the video fits the stereotypical definition of a MAGA supporter. I don't know where he lives in Virginia, but I wouldn't be surprised if he lived in the ruby red Appalachian corridor of western Virginia. When one goes to places like blueish Loudoun and Fairfax counties, there are much higher percentages of Never Trump conservatives, and Biden voters who have higher levels of formal education, and are very affluent counties. They actually have a much more acute sense of what some of the woke extremism that while small relative to the size of the US, is to them a noticeable and growing phenomenon in K-12 schools, universities, and the corporate world, among other places. Whether we like it or not, people have come to use "Critical Race Theory" as the definitive description for any instances of woke extremism. Even if the actual definition of it differs than what people often associate with it as.
"Ending a pandemic and getting the economy moving again are tall orders, but now, on top of all that, Democrats have to counter the Republican charges about racist school curriculums and sexual deviants in the bathrooms. And they have to do it better than Terry McAuliffe did with his “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach” soundbite. The early exit poll shows that this issue was one of the most damaging to McAuliffe and Democrats need to find an answer that does not sound elitist or statist."
As long as too many left of center Democrats try to minimize, rationalize, and make cheap cop out excuses for the genuine concerns Americans have about cancel culture and woke toxicity, or apply the term "critical race theory" rather broadly to where it doesn't fit the original meaning, then they will continue to alienate voters. In blue northern Virginia, many well meaning moderates and liberals who voted for Biden are concerned about wokeness in our institutions. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them voted for Youngkin. Anecdotally, many of the conservations I've had with people concerned about this in my circles are Biden voters who are moderate to liberal, but not hard core leftists by any means. Among them, I know a few who voted for Youngkin. They are moderate Democrats.
"The big economic question will be whether inflation lingers until election season. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expects inflation to ease in the second half of 2022, possibly just in time for the election, but has also said that the reciprocal removal of the tariffs instituted by Donald Trump and maintained by Joe Biden could help to ease inflation earlier. After all, tariffs are taxes that make products more expensive. Personally, I expect inflation to ease as supply problems go away since a lot of the price increases can be traced to shortages."
I definitely agree. I think it is a good time for the Biden administration to continue lifting the Trump tariffs as they did with EU steel and aluminum. But they need to do much more of it, and I would prefer the tariff repeals be without conditions attached to the trading partner. This would really help our post-pandemic recovery take off.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/30/business/economy/biden-steel-tariffs-europe.html
I have more relatives in Virginia than any other state. I hope they contributed to the Republican successes there. The most impressive Republican winner in my opinion is Winsome Sears. We will hear more from her. A Marine, an MBA, an electrician entrepreneur, charismatic speaker for Conservatives with a smooth style. What more could we ask for except for her to be born a USA citizen?
Regarding Scher's take on the election, the thing is that Ralph Northam repaired his standing with the black community after that blackface incident. They were considerably more forgiving of his indiscretions than many woke white leftists. And these black voters certainly showed up to vote during the 2019 Virginia General Assembly off-year midterm elections. And compared to progressive whites, black Democrats have a more favorable view of Northam. The Democrats won full control of both houses of the legislature, and having Donald Trump as President certainly motivated black Democrats to vote. White progressives are more hit or miss in these kinds of elections. In a presidential election year, they will vote, but during non-POTUS elections a certain portion of these voters will check out if the Democratic candidate isn't sufficiently progressive to their tastes. But with Trump out of Twitter, and out of the political scene, there wasn't the boogie man the Democrats relied on for the past 5 years to get out the vote, so black voting rates fell closer to the pre-Trump midterm norm.