Walz is what Harris needs. Vance is just another lickspittle.

Minnesota and Walz do no harm to Harris, who chose someone she liked. Vance and Trump were a marriage of submission and loyalty tests.

Donald Trump had good instincts on picking a running mate. He wanted North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who would have been an excellent pick. In 2016, Burgum won his state taking over 76 percent of the vote, winning all but two counties; in 2020, he repeated the feat, winning with over 65 percent. Trump won North Dakota with 65 percent in 2016, and again in 2020. Burgum was a reliable choice. But Donald’s family pushed hard for a younger, more compelling choice in J.D. Vance. And Vance, being smart and relatively new to politics, seemed more likely to remain loyal, to the point of doing what Mike Pence would not.

In the end, loyalty won out for the former president. Trump chose someone who once mused on whether his potential boss was a “cynical a**hole like Nixon,”or “America’s Hitler.” But after thoughtful consideration, and a heap of political ambition, Vance found the light. Gov. Burgum would likely not have that kind of leg-humping obsequiousness; he’s a billionaire and used to making his own decisions.

Trump made his choice not for the campaign value of having Vance, but for the value of having someone who would stick by his side without taking the spotlight. Vance is not a particularly charismatic speaker, but he is intelligent. He’s more like a less polished version of Gov. Ron DeSantis—a culture warrior with a boy-makes-good story and a stint in the Marines. Who knows—or cares—if the running mates get along, or even like each other.

It’s obvious that the years of eating Trump’s leftover fecal sandwiches hardened Mike Pence toward his boss. And now the two are poison for each other. There’s a non-zero chance that Vance will feel the same way should Trump win and his dedication be tested (and tested to the limit). Personal compatibility never entered the calculus for the Trump-Vance relationship. Trump’s kids liked Vance better than Burgum, but in truth, Burgum was a better pick for the election—and probably for the country should Trump get another four years.

But for all that, I don’t think Vance will hurt Trump. Some of Trump’s fans don’t trust him, but that won’t change their minds about voting. And some borderline voters—a vanishingly small number—might change their minds based on Vance’s statements (for instance, unmarried ladies who own feline pets). However, most voters have already decided on Trump. It’s all a matter of enthusiasm and turnout right now.

Trump has a ceiling. He could very well win because his ceiling is very dependent on how well his opponent is polling. Events carry voters in swells, but they don’t move the base. And this is why Vice President Kamala Harris chose Gov. Tim Walz. Trump picked for loyalty. Harris picked for compatibility and safety.

I was actually surprised at the choice of venue and timing: picking Walz and having their first rally as running mates in the state where her other suitor, Gov. Josh Shapiro, is a popular governor, seems a snub. It can even be taken as a snub by people who see it as a repudiation of anyone who is too gaga for Israel. Shapiro is an observant Jew whose support for the Jewish state and its war against Hamas has been vocal and consistent. This makes Shapiro a potential risk factor for Harris, who has to appease the far-left progressive wing of her party, which includes many who (disgustingly) support Hamas. Harris could have been more nuanced and gentle in her choice of both location and news cycle: Israel faces imminent expansion of its war.

But Walz is a solid pick. He presides over a state that resembles much of America: the cities are very much Democrat and liberal; the rural areas are very red. Walz comes from a very humble background, hailing from Nebraska, and teaching high school while coaching his school’s football team. He served for 24 years in the Army National Guard. He’s been seen by some of the very-left, very-online gen-Z as “normal people.”

Walz served twelve years in Congress and won two terms as governor. He represented the 1st Congressional District, on the state’s southern border, a seat currently held by Republican Brad Finstad. Walz was one of only two Democrats to represent that district (83 percent white), since 1893. In 2018, he won the state with 53.9 percent, taking the most populous counties. He was re-elected in 2022 with 52.3 percent, losing Beltrami, Koochiching, and Mahnomen counties in the north, and a few in the south, but hanging on to win.

Minnesota went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, 46.9 percent to 45.4 percent for Trump. In 2020, Biden outperformed Trump, who received more votes than he did in 2016 but the exact same percentage. Minnesota is an archetype of a reliable state for Democrats based on the same kind of demographics found all over America. Walz proved he can win there, even having what religious conservatives see as extreme positions on abortion and social issues.

As governor, Walz signed a bill into law that permits abortions up until birth. Minnesota is not a particularly religious state, ranked 35th by Pew Research. Pennsylvania comes in at number 27, with 53 percent considered religious. Minnesota is also not really an extremely libertarian place, like New Hampshire (N.H. is dead last, tied with Massachusetts, for religion, but considered a populist place that rankles at the slightest whiff of nanny state). The land o’ lakes is much more tolerant of government, yet suspicious of the conspicuous use of power.

Walz’s position on abortion, and the liberal bent of his state regarding various “intersectional” priorities on policing, crime, and his support for certain kinds of people who are considered “oppressed” makes him a better fit for the Harris campaign’s core message to America. That message is that Donald Trump has a ceiling, and Democrats need to stand up, show up, and top him. If it takes stirring up the base on issues like abortion and race, then Walz is a better choice over Shapiro, who can be seen as a bit too religious (he quotes the Torah).

Delivering Minnesota was not part of the main calculus for Harris picking Walz. I think—and it’s been reported—that Harris just liked Walz on a personal basis. Her meeting with Shapiro was a bit less spectacular, reports say. Perhaps, playing to a wider base and a bigger tent, if that was Harris’s strategy, would have demanded choosing Shapiro. But it was more important to Harris that she likes her running mate, and her running mate likes her. That’s important because Harris has a reputation for not being likable to her staff (and Biden’s staff).

Harris needs someone “normal,” someone with a little spice, like a drunk driving arrest in 1995. If a DUI is Walz’s worst skeleton in his closet, he’s got it made compared to his opposition, whose closet is as big as a mansion and spilling out onto the lawn. And Walz has solid liberal cred: he hesitated to call in the National Guard when Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey requested troops to quell the riots following George Floyd’s killing in May 2020. That won’t make him any more popular with Republicans, but it will help to soften Harris’s “law and order” bent when she was California’s attorney general.

This quote will play particularly well with the BLM crowd:

“I just want to be clear,” he said during [a press conference on May 29, 2020, three days after the riots had begun], “there’s philosophically an argument to be made that an armed presence on the ground in the midst of where we just had a police killing is seen as a catalyst.”

At least he didn’t dither in front of the television on January 6th, 2021, while ten thousand rioters descended on the U.S. Capitol. It’s hard to make the argument about Walz when Trump has that kind of baggage.

I think Walz will help Harris. Veep picks rarely swing a race (tell that to Sarah Palin), but when they matter, they matter. Trump picked to have a Robin to his Batman, to abuse a DC Comic analogy. Harris picked to have a Groot to her Rocket Raccoon, to abuse the same analogy for Marvel—a partner.

Vance can only harm Trump, but probably won’t. Trump doesn’t need any more lickspittles. Walz can help Harris—he won’t be a whole lot of help in places like rural Georgia—but he could help energize Democrats to get out and vote. If I ever decide to hold my nose and vote for Harris (that’s not particularly likely right now, but voting for Trump is less likely), I’ll have to pinch it tighter because of Walz.

But I’m not the voter Harris needs. Walz can deliver more of what Harris needs.

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