What are the Iranians thinking?
Bomb-threaten-cave-repeat
The fact that the Iran war continues in fits and starts isn’t news, but the question is why the war isn’t over. Iran has had numerous opportunities not only to end the fighting, but to end the fighting with the strategic victory of control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
To hear the Trump Administration tell it, Iran is like the Black Knight in “Monty Python and the Holy Grail.” The erstwhile knight unsuccessfully fights King Arthur, losing one limb after the other, but he never gives up, asserting, “Tis but a scratch.”
Image by Chat GPT
I’ve lost count of how many times the Trump Administration has said that Iran was defeated and its military destroyed. Somehow, like the Black Knight, Iran fights on.
So what are the Iranians thinking? They apparently don’t realize that they are destroyed and defeated.
One possibility is that the regime is suicidal. This is the view of many Republican Iran hawks. Going way back to 2009, I read several books about Muslim theology and the Twelfth Imam, a belief that is similar to Christian endtimes theology in many ways. I described the Twelver sect in my blog at the time and related how then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seemed to believe that these prophecies were about to be fulfilled. Ahmadinejad, by the way, is apparently who the Trump Administration had picked to lead post-regime change Iran.
The regime clearly doesn’t value the lives of their citizens, but that doesn’t mean it is suicidal. In fact, the regime seems to be more clear eyed about what it can realistically accomplish than Trump and Netanyahu. In fact, I think that Iran has Trump right where it wants him.
Iran knows that Trump desperately needs to end the war for two reasons. First and most obviously, the midterms are coming and the war is unpopular. A war that drags on until Election Day would be one more strike against Republicans in a year that already has the momentum moving against them.
Perhaps more important, Trump started the war unilaterally and consequently has very limited authority to fight it. The clock has already run out and been restarted on the War Powers Act, a move of dubious constitutionality in itself, and war-limiting bills have passed the House, even with its Republican majority. If the war drags on into the new Congress, Trump may well find his war funding cut off.
As I wrote back in March, Trump has to do something to claim a victory, but Iran just has to survive. Iran’s regime is winning by continuing to exist and denying Donald Trump the ability to declare victory and stop fighting.
Like Rocky Balboa at the hands of someone in every installment of the series, Iran just won’t stay down for the count. When Trump declares a unilateral ceasefire, it is often Iran that triggers a resumption of hostilities, like a battered, bloody boxer that rises off the mat to take yet another shot at the champ.
And more like Rocky than the Black Knight, the damage inflicted on Iran seems to be overestimated. The proof of that statement is that Iran is still able to inflict damage on US bases in the region and neighboring countries.
Trump is caught in a trap. Like the proverbial monkey with his hand inside the log (or the tar baby from Southern folklore), Trump can’t let go, but he also can’t get the prize. He’s stuck.
He can continue bombing “until morale improves,” but the air campaign isn’t doing anything except expend ordnance at this point, and US ordnance stockpiles are becoming depleted, threatening our abilities not only in Iran but elsewhere. The only way to topple the regime is a ground invasion. It’s painfully obvious that Trump won’t do this for the two reasons cited earlier.
Trump could also aim lower and shift his war goal to reopening the strait that was open before he started bombing. The problem there is that Iran seems to still have a plentiful supply of drones and missiles to shoot at ships. To end the Iranian threat to shipping would probably require occupying the whole country because the range of these weapons is several hundred miles. At that point, regime change is back on the table.
And what if Trump does overcome his TACO tendencies and order in the infantry? Keep in mind that Iran has been supplying drones to Russians fighting in Ukraine. There are probably many members of the regime who would welcome the chance to fight a guerrilla war against Americans from Iran’s cities and mountains. In short order, we’d be seeing drone videos of American soldiers being stalked by the devices, just as we’ve watched Russian soldiers dying at the hands of Ukrainian drones.
Escalating the war with Iran could also have further unintended consequences. Houthi rebels in Yemen, allies of the Iranian regime, could move off the sidelines to blockade a second trade route, the Bab el-Mandeb strait that accesses the Red Sea. Opening a second theater would further strain US resources.
Going further, an invasion would be incredibly bloody, and as in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, a lot of the country would see us as occupiers rather than liberators. Iran would become another endless war unless Congress pulls the plug.
And then there’s the oil. Even during the ceasefires, Hormuz shipping didn’t return to anywhere near normal. As a result, world oil stockpiles are being depleted. Trump has kept a lid on gas prices at home by tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but per the Energy Information Agency, he has reached the end of his ability to do so. As of the end of July, the reserve is at its lowest point since 1982 with only a two-week supply left.
Trump has also gamed oil markets by fighting a weekend war. A pattern has emerged of threats and bombing late in the week with ceasefires breaking out before markets open on Monday.
An additional risk to escalation is that if Iran inflicts further damage on Persian Gulf oil facilities, the energy crisis would be exacerbated. The Saudis reportedly raised this concern before Trump backed down from his most recent threats of escalation.
Time is on Iran's side in almost every respect. Trump is facing a impending election, growing discontent in Congress, and a looming world energy crisis.
Again, Iran just has to survive. With the strait mostly closed, world economies are slowly being strangled by the lack of oil and rising energy prices. Trump has to somehow turn on the oil spigot again… without expanding the war. That’s a tall order, and it comes with an Iranian veto.
Donald Trump started this war, but he can’t end it. Iran is unwilling to accept his peace terms, even when he essentially offers an American surrender. That’s why Trump is stuck in the loop of bomb-threaten-cave-repeat.
He has no cards.
REFLECTING POOL The DOJ dropped the charges against an Olympian and others accused of vandalizing the reflecting pool, saying the pool’s problems were the result of shoddy workmanship. Ever committed to the bit, Trump insisted on social media that the damage was caused by vandals.
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