What are the Iranians thinking?
Bomb-threaten-cave-repeat
The fact that the Iran war continues in fits and starts isn’t news, but the question is why the war isn’t over. Iran has had numerous opportunities not only to end the fighting, but to end the fighting with the strategic victory of control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
To hear the Trump Administration tell it, Iran is like the Black Knight in “Monty Python and the Holy Grail.” The erstwhile knight unsuccessfully fights King Arthur, losing one limb after the other, but he never gives up, asserting, “Tis but a scratch.”
Image by Chat GPT
I’ve lost count of how many times the Trump Administration has said that Iran was defeated and its military destroyed. Somehow, like the Black Knight, Iran fights on.
So what are the Iranians thinking? They apparently don’t realize that they are destroyed and defeated.
One possibility is that the regime is suicidal. This is the view of many Republican Iran hawks. Going way back to 2009, I read several books about Muslim theology and the Twelfth Imam, a belief that is similar to Christian endtimes theology in many ways. I described the Twelver sect in my blog at the time and related how then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seemed to believe that these prophecies were about to be fulfilled. Ahmadinejad, by the way, is apparently who the Trump Administration had picked to lead post-regime change Iran.
The regime clearly doesn’t value the lives of their citizens, but that doesn’t mean it is suicidal. In fact, the regime seems to be more clear eyed about what it can realistically accomplish than Trump and Netanyahu. In fact, I think that Iran has Trump right where it wants him.
Iran knows that Trump desperately needs to end the war for two reasons. First and most obviously, the midterms are coming and the war is unpopular. A war that drags on until Election Day would be one more strike against Republicans in a year that already has the momentum moving against them.
Perhaps more important, Trump started the war unilaterally and consequently has very limited authority to fight it. The clock has already run out and been restarted on the War Powers Act, a move of dubious constitutionality in itself, and war-limiting bills have passed the House, even with its Republican majority. If the war drags on into the new Congress, Trump may well find his war funding cut off.
As I wrote back in March, Trump has to do something to claim a victory, but Iran just has to survive. Iran’s regime is winning by continuing to exist and denying Donald Trump the ability to declare victory and stop fighting.
Like Rocky Balboa at the hands of someone in every installment of the series, Iran just won’t stay down for the count. When Trump declares a unilateral ceasefire, it is often Iran that triggers a resumption of hostilities, like a battered, bloody boxer that rises off the mat to take yet another shot at the champ.
And more like Rocky than the Black Knight, the damage inflicted on Iran seems to be overestimated. The proof of that statement is that Iran is still able to inflict damage on US bases in the region and neighboring countries.
Trump is caught in a trap. Like the proverbial monkey with his hand inside the log (or the tar baby from Southern folklore), Trump can’t let go, but he also can’t get the prize. He’s stuck.
He can continue bombing “until morale improves,” but the air campaign isn’t doing anything except expend ordnance at this point, and US ordnance stockpiles are becoming depleted, threatening our abilities not only in Iran but elsewhere. The only way to topple the regime is a ground invasion. It’s painfully obvious that Trump won’t do this for the two reasons cited earlier.
Trump could also aim lower and shift his war goal to reopening the strait that was open before he started bombing. The problem there is that Iran seems to still have a plentiful supply of drones and missiles to shoot at ships. To end the Iranian threat to shipping would probably require occupying the whole country because the range of these weapons is several hundred miles. At that point, regime change is back on the table.
And what if Trump does overcome his TACO tendencies and order in the infantry? Keep in mind that Iran has been supplying drones to Russians fighting in Ukraine. There are probably many members of the regime who would welcome the chance to fight a guerrilla war against Americans from Iran’s cities and mountains. In short order, we’d be seeing drone videos of American soldiers being stalked by the devices, just as we’ve watched Russian soldiers dying at the hands of Ukrainian drones.
Escalating the war with Iran could also have further unintended consequences. Houthi rebels in Yemen, allies of the Iranian regime, could move off the sidelines to blockade a second trade route, the Bab el-Mandeb strait that accesses the Red Sea. Opening a second theater would further strain US resources.
Going further, an invasion would be incredibly bloody, and as in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, a lot of the country would see us as occupiers rather than liberators. Iran would become another endless war unless Congress pulls the plug.
And then there’s the oil. Even during the ceasefires, Hormuz shipping didn’t return to anywhere near normal. As a result, world oil stockpiles are being depleted. Trump has kept a lid on gas prices at home by tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but per the Energy Information Agency, he has reached the end of his ability to do so. As of the end of July, the reserve is at its lowest point since 1982 with only a two-week supply left.
Trump has also gamed oil markets by fighting a weekend war. A pattern has emerged of threats and bombing late in the week with ceasefires breaking out before markets open on Monday.
An additional risk to escalation is that if Iran inflicts further damage on Persian Gulf oil facilities, the energy crisis would be exacerbated. The Saudis reportedly raised this concern before Trump backed down from his most recent threats of escalation.
Time is on Iran's side in almost every respect. Trump is facing a impending election, growing discontent in Congress, and a looming world energy crisis.
Again, Iran just has to survive. With the strait mostly closed, world economies are slowly being strangled by the lack of oil and rising energy prices. Trump has to somehow turn on the oil spigot again… without expanding the war. That’s a tall order, and it comes with an Iranian veto.
Donald Trump started this war, but he can’t end it. Iran is unwilling to accept his peace terms, even when he essentially offers an American surrender. That’s why Trump is stuck in the loop of bomb-threaten-cave-repeat.
He has no cards.
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Honestly, Iran has flipped the script. At this point it isn’t just that Trump’s war aims will not be fulfilled, that is irrefutable, it is that Iran will inflict a defeat on the United States of America.
For Trump, it won’t be a conventional loss where they defeat our forces, luckily for him that will probably be enough to keep much of his base on board. Rather, it is a loss that will only be seen by those willing to think objectively about who is dictating terms to whom.
Iran is now dictating terms, no matter what Mr Trump says or how much bluster and tough guy bravado he tries to project. That is a defeat for us, and a meaningful one, which reduces our deterrent power and global standing.
Normal human beings, when faced with the ugly truth of what is happening around them tend to become pragmatic and willing to admit they made a mistake. Unfortunately for us, trump is not a normal human being.
His narcissistic personality prevents him from acknowledging the idea he erred and keeps lying to all of us and worse yet, himself. It is tragic to watch, knowing all of us will be paying the price for years to come. His incompetence, not just regarding the war in Iran, but across the board is almost unimaginable.
Back to human nature: I awoke this morning and read your old pal Erick Erickson's free email. He, along with countless supporters (from the comment section), are sounding the alarm bells. Not just on the war, but across the full spectrum of foolish and greedy acts by the president. Yikes.
But wait, there's more; former MAGA influencers and high profile supporters have had enough as well. The list grows weekly as those who helped elect him have come to realize, trump only cares about trump. End of story.
I do have a question David: How and why have oil companies, who are showing massive profits since the war started, not being held accountable for price gauging?