"The FBI’s update is more alarming. It shows a 33 percent increase in active shooters from 2019 to 2020 and another 52.5 percent increase from 2020 to 2021. However, the VOA article points out that school mass shootings are not necessarily increasing in frequency. The highest concentration of school rampages occurred from 1998-99."
Just the standard PSA that the 2020 to 2021 number might deserve the Pandemic Asterisk, due to the stay at home orders and fewer opportunities to carry out a mass shooting in that context. That said, the 2019 to 2021 increase IS concerning (102% if my math is right), and I suspect may also be driven by a post-2020 disengagement of the police, which seems to be happening here in Chicago, with what seems like a lot more gun-related incidents (not just mass shootings) occurring this past year.
"The misconception that 'assault' rifles are the weapon of choice for spree killers probably stems both from high- profile attacks like the one in Uvalde as well as the focus of media and politicians on the popular rifles. It is true that these rifles are used more frequently in spree killings than in other crimes but handguns are still far more popular."
It may also be worth remarking on the relative lethality of handguns vs. AR-15s. Via Charlie Sykes over at The Bulwark, we get this commentary from The Intercept[1] and Wired[2] (2016):
"It’s possible to argue about everything when it comes to the politics of guns---including about the definition of 'assault rifle' itself---but it’s harder to argue about physics. So let's consider the physics of an AR-15."
"A bullet with more energy can do more damage. Its total kinetic energy is equal to one-half the mass of the bullet times its velocity squared. The bullet from a handgun is---as absurd as it may sound---slow compared to that from an AR-15. It can be stopped by the thick bone of the upper leg. It might pass through the body, only to become lodged in skin, which is surprisingly elastic."
"The bullet from an AR-15 does an entirely different kind of violence to the human body. It’s relatively small, but it leaves the muzzle at three times the speed of a handgun bullet. It has so much energy that it can disintegrate three inches of leg bone. 'It would just turn it to dust,' says Donald Jenkins, a trauma surgeon at University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio. If it hits the liver, 'the liver looks like a jello mold that’s been dropped on the floor.' And the exit wound can be a nasty, jagged hole the size of an orange."
"These high-velocity bullets can damage flesh inches away from their path, either because they fragment or because they cause something called cavitation. When you trail your fingers through water, the water ripples and curls. When a high-velocity bullet pierces the body, human tissues ripples as well---but much more violently. The bullet from an AR-15 might miss the femoral artery in the leg, but cavitation may burst the artery anyway, causing death by blood loss. A swath of stretched and torn tissue around the wound may die. That’s why, says Rhee, a handgun wound might require only one surgery but an AR-15 bullet wound might require three to ten."
I don't know if banning AR-15s would decrease the number of shootings, but it may increase the number of shooting *survivors*. (I also suspect that the Uvalde cops would have acted sooner if they were just facing a shooter with a handgun.)
The problem here is that “assault” rifles aren’t the only rifles capable of firing high-velocity ammunition. Non-“assault” rifles can and do fire the exact same bullets.
I believe the army are re-equiping themselves with a more powerful rifle as well. A number of commentators have suggested that these new rifles will supplant the AR 15 as the weapon of choice in the US, leading to a new level of violence and damage in mass shooter events.
"'This is a weapon that could defeat any body armor, any planned body armor that we know of in the future,' then-Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said in 2019. 'This is a weapon that can go out at ranges that are unknown today. There is a target acquisition system built into this thing that is unlike anything that exists today. This is a very sophisticated weapon.'"
"The three companies vying for the contract to supply a new weapon to the Army’s close combat forces, infantry, special operations forces, Marines and engineers are Sig Sauer, Textron Systems and an offering formerly from General Dynamics OTS now being handled by Lonestar Future Weapons."
"The FBI’s update is more alarming. It shows a 33 percent increase in active shooters from 2019 to 2020 and another 52.5 percent increase from 2020 to 2021. However, the VOA article points out that school mass shootings are not necessarily increasing in frequency. The highest concentration of school rampages occurred from 1998-99."
Just the standard PSA that the 2020 to 2021 number might deserve the Pandemic Asterisk, due to the stay at home orders and fewer opportunities to carry out a mass shooting in that context. That said, the 2019 to 2021 increase IS concerning (102% if my math is right), and I suspect may also be driven by a post-2020 disengagement of the police, which seems to be happening here in Chicago, with what seems like a lot more gun-related incidents (not just mass shootings) occurring this past year.
"The misconception that 'assault' rifles are the weapon of choice for spree killers probably stems both from high- profile attacks like the one in Uvalde as well as the focus of media and politicians on the popular rifles. It is true that these rifles are used more frequently in spree killings than in other crimes but handguns are still far more popular."
It may also be worth remarking on the relative lethality of handguns vs. AR-15s. Via Charlie Sykes over at The Bulwark, we get this commentary from The Intercept[1] and Wired[2] (2016):
"It’s possible to argue about everything when it comes to the politics of guns---including about the definition of 'assault rifle' itself---but it’s harder to argue about physics. So let's consider the physics of an AR-15."
"A bullet with more energy can do more damage. Its total kinetic energy is equal to one-half the mass of the bullet times its velocity squared. The bullet from a handgun is---as absurd as it may sound---slow compared to that from an AR-15. It can be stopped by the thick bone of the upper leg. It might pass through the body, only to become lodged in skin, which is surprisingly elastic."
"The bullet from an AR-15 does an entirely different kind of violence to the human body. It’s relatively small, but it leaves the muzzle at three times the speed of a handgun bullet. It has so much energy that it can disintegrate three inches of leg bone. 'It would just turn it to dust,' says Donald Jenkins, a trauma surgeon at University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio. If it hits the liver, 'the liver looks like a jello mold that’s been dropped on the floor.' And the exit wound can be a nasty, jagged hole the size of an orange."
"These high-velocity bullets can damage flesh inches away from their path, either because they fragment or because they cause something called cavitation. When you trail your fingers through water, the water ripples and curls. When a high-velocity bullet pierces the body, human tissues ripples as well---but much more violently. The bullet from an AR-15 might miss the femoral artery in the leg, but cavitation may burst the artery anyway, causing death by blood loss. A swath of stretched and torn tissue around the wound may die. That’s why, says Rhee, a handgun wound might require only one surgery but an AR-15 bullet wound might require three to ten."
I don't know if banning AR-15s would decrease the number of shootings, but it may increase the number of shooting *survivors*. (I also suspect that the Uvalde cops would have acted sooner if they were just facing a shooter with a handgun.)
[1] https://theintercept.com/2022/05/26/ar-15-uvalde-school-shooting-vietnam-war/
[2] https://www.wired.com/2016/06/ar-15-can-human-body/
The problem here is that “assault” rifles aren’t the only rifles capable of firing high-velocity ammunition. Non-“assault” rifles can and do fire the exact same bullets.
I believe the army are re-equiping themselves with a more powerful rifle as well. A number of commentators have suggested that these new rifles will supplant the AR 15 as the weapon of choice in the US, leading to a new level of violence and damage in mass shooter events.
Yeah - I was just reading about those:
"'This is a weapon that could defeat any body armor, any planned body armor that we know of in the future,' then-Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said in 2019. 'This is a weapon that can go out at ranges that are unknown today. There is a target acquisition system built into this thing that is unlike anything that exists today. This is a very sophisticated weapon.'"
"The three companies vying for the contract to supply a new weapon to the Army’s close combat forces, infantry, special operations forces, Marines and engineers are Sig Sauer, Textron Systems and an offering formerly from General Dynamics OTS now being handled by Lonestar Future Weapons."
[1] https://www.armytimes.com/news/2021/10/11/the-armys-m4-m16-and-saw-replacement-is-on-its-way/